CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 09Z FRI 19/09 - 06Z SAT 20/09 2003
ISSUED: 19/09 08:48Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across Southern central Mediterranean

General thunderstorms are forecast across Southern Scandinavia

SYNOPSIS

Upper ridge placed over SW Europe and Central Europe. At its northern flank ... strong upper jet affects northern Europe. Over the southern central Mediterranean ... upper low is forecast to weaken within the forecast periode.

DISCUSSION

...Central Mediterranean...
In the range of the weak upper trough, thunderstorm activity still remains. Multicells are the dominant type of convection. Within the forecast periode ... situation should be comparable to yesterday. Weak synoptical forcing and weak shear are expected over the region. Affected airmass is characterized by a moist boundary layer and locally steep lapse rates. CAPE values in the order of 1000 J/kg should be possible. Within this environment ... thunderstorms should go on during the forecast periode. Multicells and single cells should be the main convective mode. Severe storms are not expected. However ... given weak vertical shear profiles ... and relatively moist boundary layer ... some waterspouts are not ruled out attm.

#